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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Engineering Kanban |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When work sits in too many parallel streams, throughput suffers and no one sees the bottlenecks. Kanban makes the flow of work visible and limits overload so a system becomes calmer and more predictable. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 10-30 min je Item | Ongoing | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 2-12 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Kanban board, WIP policies, Flow metrics | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | FlowVisual managementDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |