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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |  Agile Planning Poker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 10-30 min je Item | 15-60 min | 2-5 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 2-9 | 3-9 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationEffortAgile | EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam |