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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |