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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions |