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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Risk Matrix |  Operations Failure Mode and Effects Analysis |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List. | For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-60 min | 2-6 h | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-10 | 3-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Risk Matrix, Top Risk List | FMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment | RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |