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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Risk Matrix |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-60 min | 45-90 min | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Risk Matrix, Top Risk List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |