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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Paper radar with five axes, two current and target profiles, and evidence cards beside each dimension.
Decision Making
Radar
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.When capabilities, maturity levels, or market positions need to be compared across several dimensions, overview is easily lost. Radar brings different characteristics into a shared picture and shows patterns faster than tables do.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min1-2 h60-120 min2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
3-102-102-83-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsRadar Map, Capability Scores, Action AreasConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
AssessmentPortfolioCapability
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
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