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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Discovery Pretotyping |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Pretotyping clarifies whether a customer problem and solution idea create enough real demand. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence, and captures the result as a pretotyping sketch, test setup, and conversion data. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | Stunden bis wenige Tage | 45-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-4 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Pretotyping sketch, Test setup, Conversion data, Go or no-go decision | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ValidationDemandMVP | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |