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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Discovery Pretotyping |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Innovation Lean Startup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Pretotyping clarifies whether a customer problem and solution idea create enough real demand. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence, and captures the result as a pretotyping sketch, test setup, and conversion data. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | Stunden bis wenige Tage | 60-120 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-4 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Pretotyping sketch, Test setup, Conversion data, Go or no-go decision | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ValidationDemandMVP | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | LeanStartupValidationMVP |