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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 20–45 min | 1-2 h | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions |