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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 20–45 min | 30-90 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | Small cross-functional group | 1-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | DecisionTreeOptions | RiskDecisionSensemaking |