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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 20–45 min | 2-6 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |