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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Growth A/B Testing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 20–45 min | 45-60 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation |