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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 15-45 min | 30-90 min | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 1-10 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |