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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 15-45 min | 0.5-3 Tage | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 5-15 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | RiskDecisionSensemaking |