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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Paper illustration: scenarios and architectural decisions are connected to identified risks.
Architecture
ATAM (Architecture Tradeoff Analysis Method)
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.ATAM helps teams weigh architecture decisions when quality goals compete. The team considers business goals, stakeholder expectations, and technical decisions together. The evaluation shows which risks need further investigation.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min15-45 min2-6 hSeveral meetings plus preparation and analysis; total effort depends on scope
Participantsdifferent
3-101-83-10Evaluation team, architects, and relevant stakeholders
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation ActionsPrioritized quality scenarios in a utility tree, Architecture risks with reasoning and assumptions, Sensitivity and trade-off points, Findings report with open investigations
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
ArchitectureQualityRiskTradeoffsStakeholders
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