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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 15-45 min | 2-6 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causeSafetyIncident |