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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |