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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Discovery Opportunity Solution Tree |  Product Discovery Test Card |  UX Design Lean UX Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | The Lean UX Canvas helps clarify user behavior, touchpoints, and concept decisions. It makes assumptions and desired outcomes visible and captures the result as a completed canvas, hypothesis list, and first experiment. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-2 h Setup, laufend | 20-35 min | 2-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Opportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning Log | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Completed Lean UX Canvas, Hypothesis list, First experiment |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | CanvasHypothesisOutcomesDiscovery |