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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile NoEstimates |  Operations Waste Analysis |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | laufend | 45-120 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-12 | 2-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Waste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement Backlog | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationForecastingFlow | WasteLeanProcess improvement | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |