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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | laufend | 30-90 min | 0.5-3 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-12 | 1-10 | 5-15 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationForecastingFlow | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking |