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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile NoEstimates |  Agile Bucket System |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | laufend | 30-90 min | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-12 | 3-12 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |