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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery MoSCoW |  Decision Making Risk Matrix |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When a release carries too many demands and priorities are only ever negotiated, MoSCoW creates clear boundaries for the next cut. Must, Should, Could, and Won't make commitment, room for maneuver, and trade-off logic visible to everyone involved. | When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min | 30-60 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-12 | 3-10 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Prioritized Backlog, Release Scope, Tradeoff Notes | Risk Matrix, Top Risk List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | PrioritizationScopeDecision | RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |