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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | Half day | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | DecisionTreeOptions | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |