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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Operations Root Cause Analysis |  Operations Root Cause Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another. | For a problem with several suspected causes, the method builds a causal structure instead of a mere list. It makes visible how causes connect and where the strongest points of leverage lie. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 1-4 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Problem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan | Cause Tree, Evidence Notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanStartupValidationMVP | Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident | Root causeTreeIncidentQuality |