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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Growth A/B Testing |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 1-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanStartupValidationMVP | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |