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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Growth A/B Testing |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanStartupValidationMVP | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |