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| Criterion | ![]() Systems Thinking Futures Wheel | ![]() Innovation Lean Startup | ![]() Operations 5 Whys | ![]() Operations Root Cause Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. | When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 15-30 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Root cause notes, Countermeasures | Problem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanStartupValidationMVP | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving | Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident |



