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| Criterion | ![]() Systems Thinking Futures Wheel | ![]() Product Strategy Lean Canvas | ![]() Innovation Lean Startup | ![]() Product Discovery Pretotyping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | Pretotyping clarifies whether a customer problem and solution idea create enough real demand. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence, and captures the result as a pretotyping sketch, test setup, and conversion data. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | Stunden bis wenige Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-6 | 2-8 | 1-4 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Pretotyping sketch, Test setup, Conversion data, Go or no-go decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | LeanStartupValidationMVP | ValidationDemandMVP |



