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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Innovation Lean Startup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 2-4 h | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-6 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | LeanStartupValidationMVP |