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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 h | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-12 | 3-8 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | KnowledgeMappingRisk | RiskDecisionSensemaking | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |