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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 1-3 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-12 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | KnowledgeMappingRisk | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |