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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Operations 5 Whys |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-8 h | 15-30 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Root cause notes, Countermeasures | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving | Root causeSafetyIncident |