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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations Change Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-5 Tage | 30-60 min | 45-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-12 | 2-10 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison |