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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-5 Tage | 2-4 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-12 | 2-6 | 3-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | Root causeSafetyIncident | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |