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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 10-20 min daily | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 1 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy |