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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations Root Cause Tree Analysis |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | For a problem with several suspected causes, the method builds a causal structure instead of a mere list. It makes visible how causes connect and where the strongest points of leverage lie. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-60 min | 1-3 h | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-10 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Cause Tree, Evidence Notes, Countermeasures | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Root causeTreeIncidentQuality | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |