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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations Change Analysis |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-60 min | 45-120 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |