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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Agile Bucket System |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-60 min | 30-90 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-10 | 3-12 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |