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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-60 min | 10-20 min daily | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-10 | 1 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics |