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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | RiskDecisionSensemaking | SensemakingDecisionRationale |