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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min30-120 min60-120 min2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
3-102-62-83-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
LeanObservationProcessOperations
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
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