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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning |