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| Criterion | ![]() Systems Thinking Futures Wheel | ![]() Business Strategy GAP Analysis | ![]() Decision Making Argument Mapping | ![]() Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | SensemakingDecisionRationale | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |



