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Criterion
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Paper illustration for Root Cause Tree Analysis
Operations
Root Cause Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.For a problem with several suspected causes, the method builds a causal structure instead of a mere list. It makes visible how causes connect and where the strongest points of leverage lie.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighHighMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 minHalber Tag2-6 h1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
3-105-203-102-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation ActionsCause Tree, Evidence Notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
ResilienceOperationsIncident
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
Root causeTreeIncidentQuality
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