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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Operations Gemba Walk |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 30-120 min | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Observation Notes, Improvement Ideas | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | LeanObservationProcessOperations | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |