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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Systems Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Systems Mapping arranges elements, relationships, and boundaries so a complex field becomes legible at a glance. The overview stabilizes the overall picture before detail work or steering begins. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 60-120 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | System Map, Dependencies, Leverage Points |
Tags1 shared | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Systems thinkingMappingBoundariesChange |