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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 2-4 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Root causeSafetyIncident | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |