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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 1-2 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ChangeDecisionStrategy | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |