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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Failure Mode and Effects Analysis |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 1-3 h | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-10 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | FMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause | SensemakingDecisionRationale | RiskDecisionSensemaking |